Submission_time: 2013/04/24 07:22 EST

Badge_Name:Andy Devos

Affiliation:Royal Observatory of Belgium

Working_Group 1st Choice:WG1

Working_Group 2nd Choice:WG4

Title:Alert system for arrival and geo-effectiveness of CMEs

Abstract:Authors: CME collaborators of COMESEP

In this talk we report on the development of an alert system for arrival and geo-effectiveness of CMEs, based on near-real time solar observations. The alert system consists of both the estimation of arrival and level of geomagnetic storm. Once a CME is detected, key parameters are transferred to the alert system and a first estimate of arrival and geo-effectiveness is made. CME detection is based on CACTus1 and arrival estimation uses the drag based model2, combined with the expert knowledge of a forecaster. In case of significant risk for a geomagnetic storm, an alert message will be sent by the alert system. The estimation and alert can be updated once more data become available. We present the setup and current status and next steps of the CME alert system, developed within the FP7 COMESEP project.

This work has received funding from the European Commission FP7 Project COMESEP (263252),

1 Automated LASCO CME Catalog for Solar Cycle 23: Are CMEs Scale Invariant?, Robbrecht et al. 2009

2 Propagation of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections: The Drag-Based Model, Vrsnak et al. 2012